After the Liberation Day craziness of April 2025, I turned more and more defensive, though my asset allocation shouldn’t be (but) to the purpose that will be advisable by the rule of thumb that your age ought to equal your fastened earnings. If that had been the case, I ought to have 28% in equities and 72% fastened earnings, and I’m not (but) fairly that conservative.
As we indicated within the earlier column on the Function Longevity Pension Fund, I intend to reside a very long time (Lord prepared); subsequently, I additionally consider that shares (not less than high quality dividend-paying shares or ETFs holding them) ought to all the time account for not less than half of an funding portfolio—even in retirement.
A core fund for retirees is the Vanguard Retirement Revenue Fund, or VRIF, buying and selling on the TSX. The ETF title describes precisely what it does and is one in every of a number of funds usually talked about by the Retirement Membership (see this introductory weblog on the Membership co-founded by blogger Dale Roberts).
I began a place in VRIF quickly after its launch in 2020. On the time, its asset allocation was roughly 50% shares to 50% fastened earnings, unfold round all geographies within the regular proportions; nevertheless, as 2025 proceeded I seen that VRIF had begun to chop again on its fairness publicity and lift its proportion of fastened earnings, virtually to the purpose of 70% bonds to only 30% shares.
Semi-retired Globe & Mail monetary columnist Rob Carrick talked about this in his bi-weekly column late in January: “A giant believer in bonds is the investing large Vanguard, which final yr took an uncommon stance in suggesting a portfolio of 70% bonds and 30% shares. The underlying considering right here is sound: shares have soared and bonds are undervalued.”
I’d additionally seen numerous YouTube movies from Vanguard’s U.S. mother or father evince comparable warning—a retrenchment from the massive U.S. Development mega cap shares in favor of different developed and rising economies world wide.
On January twenty first, Vanguard Canada held a media briefing of two of its high economists at its Toronto headquarters, which allowed me to ask about these perceptions of its rising warning. (You could find not less than two information tales on the net filed shortly after the occasion by Bloomberg Information and Funding Govt.)
4% focused payout according to Bengen’s well-known 4% rule
Our focus right here is VRIF. The unique information launch emphasised the target is to offer income-seeking traders with a “focused 4% annual payout.” That occurs to be according to William Bengen’s well-known 4% rule, which is “nice with me,” as I quipped on the media briefing.
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In response to my question, Vanguard Canada spokesman Matthew Gierasimczuk stated VRIF’s asset allocation “varies over time” however the purpose is the focused 4% return: Vanguard sees a “extra optimistic outlook on bonds and glued earnings.”
Kevin Khang, Vanguard’s head of worldwide financial analysis reiterated that the ETF seeks to fund a “sure degree of payout. Bonds, in our view, can obtain the specified sure degree of payout” and “the U.S. inventory market is fairly costly for apparent causes.” After the Nice Monetary Disaster, bonds didn’t pay a lot “however now they’re moderately valued: relative to inflation they’re paying an honest actual return.”
For this column I used to be subsequently referred to Aime Bwakira, Head of Product for Vanguard Canada. In my opinion, the rationale for VRIF’s excessive fixed-income publicity seems to be one in every of not taking extra danger than it’s worthwhile to take, an eminently affordable stance that’s apt for the retirees to which VRIF caters.
Bwakira confirmed Vanguard “has been leaning extra closely towards bonds—notably larger high quality and company bonds—than in previous years whereas staying inside its fairness guardrails” of a minimal 30% and most 60%. This positioning “displays the present setting and the outcomes of our capital markets projections.”
Three-fold rationale for elevating proportion of Mounted Revenue
The rationale is three-fold.
First is larger rates of interest. Bonds—particularly company bonds—are paying greater than they did for a few years following the 2008 Nice Monetary Disaster (GFC): “This makes them well-suited to assist VRIF’s 4% earnings goal with out taking over pointless stock-market danger.” VRIF consists of company bond publicity particularly to assist improve yield for traders.
Second, given immediately’s market outlook, the fund’s mannequin has shifted towards fastened earnings as a result of bonds “at present present a extra beneficial steadiness of anticipated return and danger.” I used to be additionally referred to Vanguard’s present VCMM 10-year projections (VCMM = Vanguard Capital Markets Mannequin) for numerous asset lessons. It’s additionally revealed within the US for US traders Vanguard Capital Markets Mannequin® forecasts.
Dated January 22, 2026, the doc states: “Even at present stretched valuations, rising earnings development may present momentum for shares within the close to time period. Nonetheless, our conviction is rising stronger that long-term prospects for U.S. equities are subdued. Our mannequin anticipates annualized returns of about 3.9% to five.9% over the subsequent 10 years.” It provides, “Our muted long-term return projection for U.S. equities is totally in step with our extra bullish prospects for an AI-led U.S. financial increase.”
