Proper now, geopolitics is entrance of thoughts for traders and virtually nothing else issues to the markets. Whether or not you put money into the inventory market, actual property, bonds, or cryptocurrenciesyou’re in all probability checking the worldwide information part of the newspaper very first thing every morning—hoping towards hope for some excellent news, particularly with regard to the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
Sadly, Because the time of writing the earlier version of this column, the conflict has solely gotten worse. The US and Israel proceed their onslaught on targets in Iran, whereas Iran continues to focus on a number of gulf nations with US navy bases, together with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and others. As of now, aside from just a few (typically contradictory) tweets from President Trump, there are few indicators that this conflict will abate as quickly as we’d hoped.
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What does the Iran conflict should do with Bitcoin (BTC)?
What does a conflict being fought 1000’s of kilometers away should do with BTC and crypto traders in Canada, it’s possible you’ll ask. The reply, sadly, is every little thing.
The conflict has led to greater crude oil costs. This might probably trigger greater inflationresulting in greater rates of interest. Actually, the Financial institution of Canada (BoC), in its most up-to-date rate of interest announcement on March 18held charges secure and struck a cautious tone in mild of the inflationary potential of the Iran conflict. The tip end result? A dangerous impact on development property, together with shares and cryptocurrencies.
Because the chart beneath exhibits, the value of crude oil has risen from about $67 to over $100 (all figures in U.S. {dollars} until in any other case specified) for the reason that present Iran conflict started on February 28, 2026.
Supply: Google Finance on Mar. 29, 2026
Crude has jumped about 50% in simply 30 days. That’s unhealthy sufficient, but when issues within the Center East don’t relax quickly, oil might probably climb to $150 or greater. It’s no marvel traders are cautious and, frankly, a little bit scared.
How has BTC fared in comparison with different property for the reason that conflict started?
Within the gloom and doom of the present market, right here is an encouraging knowledge level for BTC traders: Because the Iran conflict started one month in the past, BTC has been kind of flat (up 2.56% as I write this on the morning of March 31, 2026). That’s method higher than the efficiency of the S&P 500 (down 7.82%), the S&P/TSX 60 (down 6.25%), and gold (down 15.39%).
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Supply: Google Finance on Mar. 31, 2026
Does this imply that BTC will proceed to outperform different asset courses? Not essentially. Markets are cyclical, and BTC might have carried out higher previously month just because it’s been a laggard since October 2025. In different phrases, BTC was in all probability oversold earlier than the conflict even started.
A optimistic signal for BTC traders: ETF inflows flip optimistic
Whereas the geopolitical information is bleak, there’s a silver lining for BTC traders: we’re seeing some vital shopping for in US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Because the chart beneath exhibits, BTC ETFs skilled internet outflows since October 2025, as indicated by the crimson bars on the backside proper of the graph; nonetheless, February and March 2026 noticed vital inexperienced bars, indicating renewed institutional curiosity in BTC. It stays to be seen whether or not this pattern will proceed.
Supply: Glass node on Mar. 29, 2026.
One other approach to get a glimpse of the identical story is thru the web flows of the iShares Bitcoin Belief ETF (IBIT), the most important BTC spot ETF on this planet. Every bar beneath represents one week internet flows of IBIT over the previous yr.
Supply: Coinmarketcap as on Mar. 31, 2026.
Because the chart above exhibits, the image has been fairly bleak since about October 2025, with most weeks displaying a internet outflow of cash from the ETF. In different phrases, traders have been pulling extra money out of IBIT than they have been investing in it. Nevertheless, in what’s a welcome reduction from this unfavourable pattern, on the far proper of the chart, we are able to see 4 consecutive optimistic weeks in February and March of this yr. This might imply that institutional traders discover BTC engaging at $60,000 to $70,000.
