When will the Bitcoin bear market finish?

On the time of writing the earlier version of this column, the US had simply eliminated Venezuelan chief Nicolas Maduro from that nation in a particular forces operation, and flown him to New York to face fees. Weeks later, as I write this column, the US and Israel have launched a navy assault on Iran, ostensibly to counter Iran’s march in direction of the profitable creation of nuclear weapons.

Suffice to say, these should not regular instances in geopolitics. In a hyper-connected world, this issues to Canadian traders as a result of these occasions might have far reaching penalties—particularly for a globally traded, institutionally held asset similar to Bitcoin (BTC). Extra on this later within the column.

BTC extends losses—what’s subsequent for the crypto market?

Because the chart under reveals, the value of BTC has fallen about 47% from its all-time highs of October 2025 (based mostly on a 7 day shifting common). Positive, it’s not but fallen 70% to 80% because it did in 2018, 2020 and 2022—however a drawdown of near 50% is a stark reminder that BTC is a extremely unstable asset meant just for aggressive traders with an especially excessive urge for food for danger.

^{Supply: Glass node as of Feb. 25, 2026}

Primarily based on evaluation by Glassnode (a analysis firm specializing in digital asset on-chain evaluation), the BTC market has but not proven definitive indicators of restoration. Primarily based on an evaluation of earlier BTC market cycles, Glass node is of the view that the longer BTC trades between $60,000 and $70,000, the upper the chance of an extra fall in value.

The analysis in query means that the $70,000 degree is a vital technical marker; due to this fact, BTC must commerce above that degree convincingly for a time frame for confidence to re-enter the market.

When will BTC recuperate and begin climbing once more?

Let’s put this into perspective: With the advantage of hindsight, we will now say that BTC has been in a bear market since October 2025, when it touched a excessive of over $124,000. Which means BTC has fallen near 50% in simply 5 months. To make sure, this isn’t new within the historical past of BTC, with related capitulations seen in all cyclical bear markets of the previous. Nonetheless, the dramatic fall does serve to scare away all however probably the most excessive conviction BTC traders.

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Those that’ve held on to their BTC investments by the turmoil of the previous 5 months might understandably be trying to find some indications of when the downward pattern may start to reverse.  Markets are inherently unpredictable, however historical past does supply some patterns to ponder. Previously two cyclical bear markets, BTC bottomed about twelve months after its all-time excessive, as proven within the desk under.

There isn’t a assure that this historic sample will repeat itself, and it’s finest to be cautious in the usage of historic analogues when making funding selections.

Between geopolitics and rates of interest

As I wrote within the earlier version of this column, BTC’s destiny in 2026 will probably rely upon two main elements: geopolitical uncertainty and the trajectory of rates of interest.

A spike in US-created geopolitical danger might push traders to think about BTC, however the extent to which this occurs might be depending on inflation and rates of interest. Which means whereas traders might think about investing in so-called exhausting belongings like gold and BTC to hedge towards geopolitical uncertainty, their propensity to take action could also be restricted if liquidity circumstances are anticipated to be tight.

The assaults on Iran might destabilize oil costs, resulting in greater inflation expectations, resulting in a hawkish stance by The Fed—and this might spook traders from danger belongings (like shares, gold, and bitcoin) to comparatively risk-off belongings like bonds and money.

Whereas it’s tempting to attempt to out-think different traders by trying to foretell the course of the crypto market, it’s all however not possible to take action precisely and constantly. In such an unpredictable world, it’s most likely smart to revisit one of many fundamentals of investing: asset allocation. For many crypto traders, BTC most likely accounts for two% to 10% of their whole portfolio. As a substitute of making an attempt to foretell the place the market is headed, traders could also be higher served by shopping for or promoting BTC based mostly on the rebalancing necessities of their portfolios.

Crypto value swings are widespread

Cryptocurrencies together with BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, and others are speculative and extremely unstable belongings topic to vital value actions. Even stablecoinsthat are seemingly “protected,” could also be dangerous if not adequately backed by real-world belongings.

Investing in bitcoin and different crypto cash carries vital market, technological, and regulatory dangers. Spend money on crypto provided that it aligns together with your broader funding objectives, time horizon, and danger profile, and all the time keep vigilant about crypto scams.