Marco Rubio supplied a extra supportive message to Europe on the Munich Safety Convention yesterday than J. D. Vance did a 12 months in the past. Wolfgang Ischinger, the chair of the convention, thanked him for the message of reassurance, including, “I’m unsure you heard the sigh of reduction on this corridor.” This although Rubio, like Vance, clearly misunderstands Europe and is in denial in regards to the threats going through the US and the transatlantic alliance.
In 2025, Vance mentioned that the risk he fearful probably the most about for Europe will not be Russia, China, or another exterior actor. It was the “risk from inside,” significantly perceived restrictions on free speech. Vance’s assault landed like a bombshell in Europe. Within the weeks that adopted, Vance’s position within the Oval Workplace showdown with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Signalgate leak (by which he wrote “I simply hate bailing Europe out once more”) strengthened his popularity as Europe’s strongest critic within the Trump administration.
Serving because the administration’s extra diplomatic good cop, Rubio used his time at Munich to emphasise ties between Europe and the US. He advised the viewers: “We wish allies who’re happy with their tradition and of their heritage, who perceive that we’re heirs to the identical nice and noble civilization, and who, along with us, are prepared and capable of defend it.” Additional emphasizing unity and shared function, he added, “We’ll all the time be a toddler of Europe.”
Rubio additionally tried to contextualize President Trump’s “direct” method as a part of the noble “process of renewal and restoration,” important for each the alliance and for Europeans themselves. “We in America have no real interest in being well mannered and orderly caretakers of the West’s managed decline,” Rubio declared. Europe, he defined, had an excessive amount of religion in open borders and worldwide establishments when the one true protection of the world order is tough energy—and the navy funding that calls for.
This story about Trump rescuing Europe from its short-sighted pacifism and basic malaise is one you hear often, together with from Europeans equivalent to NATO Secretary Basic Mark Rutte, nevertheless it’s not true. Take into account the next.
On protection, Europe has been rearming quickly over the previous decade. Non-U.S. NATO members elevated their protection spending by $70 billion a 12 months through the first Trump administration, then by $190 billion within the Biden administration. The steep rise was largely in response to the rising risk from Russia, nevertheless it signifies that Europeans have been severely investing in their very own protection properly earlier than Trump’s reelection.
It will be equally fallacious to say that Europeans have outsourced Ukraine’s protection to the US, on condition that Europe has been the most important supplier of help to the nation, allocating greater than 132 billion euros from January 2022 to December 2024, in contrast with 114 billion euros from the U.S., in response to the Kiel Institute for the World Financial system. Europe’s contribution has grown since Trump took workplace once more, and U.S. help flatlined.
Even earlier than Trump returned to energy, the European Union’s asylum coverage had shifted towards tighter border controls, sooner processing, and a rising effort to evaluate asylum claims earlier than permitting migrants in. The EU had additionally begun “de-risking” the economies of member nations by limiting Chinese language funding, backing American export controls on superior chip-making gear to China, and lowering dependence on Chinese language provide chains.
However the actual drawback was not what Rubio received fallacious about Europe. It was what he selected to not say in any respect.
The large geopolitical story of this second, apart from Trump, is the rising alignment and cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea. Beijing and Pyongyang at the moment are actively concerned in a serious conflict in Europe. China helps Russia reconstitute its navy and North Korea has despatched weapons and troops. Russia has returned the favor by providing helpful navy expertise and know-how to each international locations. Senior U.S. navy and political officers have advised me that they’re significantly fearful about North Korea’s cooperation with Russia and what it means for peace on the Korean peninsula.
This authoritarian alignment is probably the most profound risk that the US and its allies, in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, face. But there was no point out of Russia or China in Rubio’s speech. He touched on each within the questions and solutions however didn’t characterize them as strategic rivals or a risk to the alliance. This appears to be a part of a sample for the administration. In January, Undersecretary of Protection for Coverage Elbridge Colby gave a serious speech in South Korea with out ever mentioning North Korea. It’s like one thing out of Harry Potter—the risk can’t be named.
Extra perniciously, the Trump administration needs to readmit Russia to the G7 and has requested Russia and China to affix Trump’s Board of Peace (Russian chief Vladimir Putin mentioned sure, China mentioned no). In the meantime, Trump officers have appeared eager to alienate the EU and dismiss the “rules-based order” as nothing greater than “cloud citadel abstractions,” although these are the very allies and beliefs that the U.S. must compete with China and comprise Russia.
Earlier than arriving in Munich, Rubio advised the press that “the outdated world is gone” and that “we dwell in a brand new period in geopolitics.” He’s proper, however he misunderstands why. The outdated order is fraying not as a result of Europe is weak or complacent or guilelessly reliant on diplomatic establishments, however as a result of authoritarian powers are more and more prepared to work collectively to forcefully reshape the world order. On this panorama, cohesive alliances, navy deterrence, and financial resilience are important.
By devoting his speech to the perceived shortcomings of America’s associates as an alternative of the threats posed by the nation’s adversaries, Rubio revealed not solely the Trump administration’s flawed prognosis of this geopolitical second however its dangerously naive technique for managing what’s changing into—thanks largely to Trump—a treacherously multipolar world.
